Japan gov’t estimates 18,000 could die in major earthquake in Tokyo metropolitan area

The Japanese government has warned that a major earthquake in the Tokyo metropolitan area could cause catastrophic damage, with an estimated 18,000 deaths and massive infrastructure collapse if preparedness measures are not improved.

Government Earthquake Risk Assessment

According to Japan’s latest disaster assessment, a powerful inland earthquake striking the Tokyo region could result in:

• Around 18,000 fatalities
• Over 600,000 buildings destroyed
• Severe fires caused by collapsed structures
• Disruption of transport, power, and water systems

Tokyo and surrounding prefectures are home to more than 37 million people, making it one of the most densely populated urban regions in the world.

Why Tokyo Is Highly Vulnerable

Several factors increase the risk:

1. Active Seismic Zones

Japan sits on the Pacific Ring of Fire, where tectonic plates constantly move, making earthquakes inevitable.

2. Aging Infrastructure

Many residential buildings, especially older wooden houses, are vulnerable to collapse and fire.

3. Urban Density

Closely packed neighborhoods increase the risk of large-scale fires after a quake.

Government Preparedness and Safety Measures

The Japanese government is urging citizens and local authorities to strengthen preparedness by:

• Retrofitting older buildings to meet earthquake standards
• Expanding evacuation shelters
• Improving fire prevention systems
• Conducting regular disaster drills

Authorities stress that early preparation can significantly reduce casualties.

What Residents Should Do

Experts recommend that residents:

• Secure heavy furniture inside homes
• Prepare emergency kits (water, food, flashlight, radio)
• Know nearby evacuation routes and shelters
• Stay informed through official disaster alerts

A Serious Warning, Not a Prediction

Officials emphasize that this estimate is not a prediction, but a warning designed to push stronger disaster readiness. Japan’s past experiences show that preparation saves lives.